Survival of the wounded president
Four impeachments. Three failed 25th Amendment attempts. Two Insurrection Act invocations the military slow-walked. One downward re-estimate of survival odds. The strange thing about this arc is that the federation's confidence the president will stay in office has actually narrowed, even as it's shifted downward — the variance gets eaten by his loss of ability to actually do anything, not by approaching removal.
Across the turns
The contradictory pattern shows up: public support for Israel, quiet blocking of the moves Russia would dislike. A handful of senior officers make their unhappiness public. The president is operating under serious constraint conflict, but he's still operating.
Insurrection Act invoked. The military slow-walks via Joint Chiefs guidance and the NORTHCOM commander's procedural refusal. The DHS executes anyway. Civil-military stress is at its worst level since 1973–74. A minority cabinet faction starts signaling about the 25th Amendment.
Insurrection Act re-invoked, partial. The military splits. The Joint Chiefs chairman gets replaced. The NORTHCOM commander gets relieved. The 25th Amendment gets attempted and fails on a cabinet split. Allies start running military-to-military communications around the executive.
Fourth career impeachment — third of this term. (The cross-term pattern is the novel thing, not "twice in one term"; that fits 2019/2021.) Senate trial falls short at 55–58 of 67. Insurrection Act invoked again, against Compact cities. Military slow-walks again. Second 25th Amendment attempt fails.
The "wounded predator" turn. The president escalates again — retaliatory firings, vendetta pardons, narrower emergency-authority probes — but with sharply degraded ability to execute. A senior officer takes a public stand framed as constitutional fidelity. Third 25th Amendment attempt fails.
Second-term second impeachment finally gets its Senate trial. Acquittal, but at the closest margin of any of the four. Another narrower Insurrection Act invocation. Cabinet defections come in at the upper bound of what turn 6 said would force a re-estimate — and the re-estimate happens. Survival odds drop from a best guess of 70% to 55%.
Into T8
Going into turn 8: a fifth impeachment is about a 32% probability. Another 25th Amendment attempt about 14%. CASS keeps pushing on the comparison set — Erdoğan after 2016, Orbán after 2010, Duterte after the extra-judicial killings — where acquittal-under-duress was treated as license to escalate. The federation's modal frame for how the president behaves is "moderate, not aggressive." CASS thinks that's wrong.