Survival of the wounded president
Four impeachments — five by turn 8, with the fifth Senate trial in turn 9. Three failed 25th Amendment attempts. Five Insurrection Act invocations across turns 2, 3, 5, 6, and 10 — the last one openly ignored. One downward re-estimate of survival odds. The strange thing about this arc is that the federation's confidence the president would stay in office actually narrowed even as it shifted downward. The variance got eaten by his loss of ability to do anything with the office, not by approaching removal. At turn 10 close, the regime still had the federal building. The Compact had the half of the country that mattered.
Across the turns
The contradictory pattern emerged: public support for Israel, quiet blocking of moves Russia would dislike. A handful of senior military officers made their unhappiness public. Constraint conflict was already at "severe."
Insurrection Act invoked. Military slow-walked via Joint Chiefs guidance and a NORTHCOM commander's procedural refusal. The DHS executed anyway. Civil-military stress at its worst level since 1973–74. A minority cabinet faction started signaling about the 25th Amendment.
Insurrection Act re-invoked, partial. Military splits. The Joint Chiefs chairman got replaced. The NORTHCOM commander got relieved. The 25th Amendment got attempted and failed on a cabinet split. Allies started running military-to-military communications around the executive.
Fourth career impeachment — third of this term. (The cross-term pattern is the novelty, not "twice in one term"; that fit 2019/2021.) Senate trial fell short at 55–58 of 67. Insurrection Act invoked again, against Compact cities. Military slow-walked. Second 25th Amendment attempt failed.
The "wounded predator" turn. The president escalated again — retaliatory firings, vendetta pardons, narrower emergency-authority probes — but with sharply degraded ability to execute. A senior officer made a public stand framed as constitutional fidelity. Third 25th Amendment attempt failed.
Second-term second impeachment Senate trial finally happened. Acquittal at the closest margin of any of the four. Another narrower Insurrection Act invocation. Cabinet defections came in at the upper bound of the turn-6 "would force re-estimate" trigger — and the re-estimate happened. Survival odds dropped from a 70% best guess to 55%.
Fifth impeachment got introduced late in the cycle. Cabinet defections breached the turn-6 trigger at the upper band. Survival to January 2029 re-estimated again, to 35–65%. Third Insurrection Act attempt got operationally refused by NORTHCOM mid-tier officers, for the first time.
Fifth impeachment Senate trial held mid-September. Acquittal at 54–68 — closest margin yet. 8–22 defectors. The pattern crystallized: politically neutered without being removed. Refusing to implement specific orders became the dominant mode for uniformed officers, exceeding reliefs and resignations combined.
The cliff. Fifth Insurrection Act invoked and ignored. Cabinet defections 12–38 during the turn. The president refused to acknowledge the general election result. He stayed in the building. The opposition unity ticket took the oath in a Compact-state capital. The federation could not model whether he'd physically depart by January 31.
Into T8
The president was, at turn close, in office and unable to use it. CASS's analog set for this kind of behavior — Erdoğan post-2016, Orbán post-2010, Duterte post-EJK — predicted that acquittal-under-duress would be read as a license to escalate. The federation's modal frame stayed at "moderate, not aggressive." That framing got tested at every turn from 6 onward. The result was a slow grinding loss of execution capacity, not a clean removal. Neither side's model fully won.