Glossary

Running reference for terms that come up in the briefings. Grouped by category. I'll keep adding to this as new things appear.

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Reading the numbers

Confidence interval (CI), written as [low, point, high] Every estimate in this simulation has three numbers instead of one. The middle number is the best guess. The outer two are the realistic floor and ceiling. Wider gap = more uncertainty. Example: [0.40, 0.55, 0.70] means "probably around 55%, but anywhere from 40 to 70 is consistent with what we know."

Empirical confidence How much real-world data and historical analogs we have for this kind of situation. Low empirical confidence = we're guessing from thin evidence.

Model confidence How well our model of how the thing works fits the actual phenomenon. Low model confidence = we might be measuring the right thing wrong.

Sponsor bias The systematic tilt that comes from who funded the research. Cyber threat assessments from vendors that sell against those threats over-report them. Institutional integrity assessments from people who work inside those institutions over-rate them. Tracked separately because confidence intervals don't capture it.

Attribution / attribution confidence Figuring out who did something. If a tanker explodes, attribution is "was that Iran? Houthis? Iraqi militias? An accident? A false flag?" Attribution confidence is how sure we'd be if it happened. Different from likelihood — something can be very likely AND have very low attribution confidence (the deniable-escalation zone).

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Domains (the seven sub-sims)

• Kinetic — actual combat: missiles, planes, ships, troops
• Logistics — supply chains and stockpiles: who runs out of what
• Infrastructure — oil, power, telecoms, financial settlement
• Picture — what each side thinks is happening vs what is happening
• Cyber/IO — hacking, propaganda, narrative environment
• Politico-economic — domestic politics, alliances, sanctions, third parties
• Command — decision-makers themselves: speed, delegation, compromise
• Institutional — slow integrity of institutions; only "tested" by stress events

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US military shorthand

Term	Plain meaning
NCA	National Command Authority. Effectively "the President's chain of command for using force."
CENTCOM	US military command for the Middle East / Central Asia.
EUCOM	US military command for Europe.
INDOPACOM	US military command for the Indo-Pacific.
ROE	Rules of Engagement. Standing instructions for when troops can shoot.
CSG	Carrier Strike Group. An aircraft carrier plus its escort ships.
SAG	Surface Action Group. A bunch of warships operating together, no carrier.
5th Fleet	The US Navy fleet headquartered in Bahrain, covering the Persian Gulf.
ISR	Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance. "What you can see."
HUMINT	Human intelligence — spies.
OSINT	Open-source intelligence — public information.
IC	Intelligence Community — the umbrella for US spy agencies (CIA, NSA, etc.).
DoD / DoJ	Departments of Defense / Justice.

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Weapons / hardware

Term	What it is
IRBM	Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile. The big ones Iran fires at Israel.
OWA-UAS	One-Way Attack drone. A drone that flies into its target and explodes. (Iranian Shahed-136 is the famous one.)
Shahed-136	Iran's main attack drone. Cheap, slow, hard to defend against in numbers.
Arrow	Israeli high-altitude missile interceptor. The one that matters against Iranian ballistic missiles.
PAC-3 MSE	Latest Patriot interceptor. US-made. Used against ballistic missiles and high-end threats.
THAAD	High-altitude US interceptor system.
BLU-109	US bunker-buster bomb.
JDAM	A tail kit that turns an unguided bomb into a guided one.
FAC / FIAC	Fast Attack Craft / Fast Inshore Attack Craft. Small fast boats. Iran uses them in swarms.
IRGCN	Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. Iran's separate, more aggressive parallel navy.
Magazine depth	How many rounds/missiles you have. "Days of supply" = how long it lasts at current usage.

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Geography / chokepoints

Place	Why it matters
Strait of Hormuz	Narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. About 17 million barrels of oil per day move through it normally — roughly a fifth of global oil consumption.
Bab el-Mandeb	Chokepoint at the bottom of the Red Sea, between Yemen and Djibouti. Tanker traffic goes through here on the way to/from the Suez Canal.
Abqaiq	Massive Saudi oil processing facility. Hit by drones in 2019; established that low-cost attacks can take out huge oil capacity.
Ras Tanura	Major Saudi oil export terminal.
Jebel Ali / Fujairah	UAE port and oil-export terminals. Fujairah sits outside the Strait of Hormuz, so it's the UAE's bypass option.
Kharg Island	Iran's main oil export terminal.
Bandar Abbas	Major Iranian port and refining hub.
Levant	Eastern Mediterranean region — Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan.

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Groups and actors

Term	Who they are
Houthis / Ansar Allah	Yemen-based armed movement, Iran-aligned. Currently running anti-shipping campaign in the Red Sea.
Hezbollah	Lebanon-based armed movement and political party, Iran-aligned. Iran's tightest proxy relationship.
PMF	Popular Mobilization Forces. Iraqi militias, some Iran-aligned.
IRGC	Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran's elite, separate-from-regular-military armed force.
GCC	Gulf Cooperation Council. The Gulf monarchies: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman.
War cabinet	Small compact wartime decision-making group, typically the head of government plus key ministers. Israel uses one.
CTF 153	Combined Task Force 153. Multinational naval task force operating in the Red Sea.
Op Prosperity Guardian	US-led coalition naval mission in the Red Sea, response to Houthi attacks.
EU Aspides	EU naval mission in the Red Sea, separate from the US-led effort.

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Oil and shipping

Term	Meaning
Brent crude	The benchmark price for global oil, in USD per barrel.
mbpd	Million barrels per day. Standard unit for oil flow.
War risk premium	Extra insurance ships have to pay when transiting dangerous waters. Expressed as percentage of the ship's hull value. When this gets high, shipping companies just reroute.

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Simulation-specific concepts

Term	Meaning
Kompromat	Russian-origin term for "compromising material" — criminal, sexual, or otherwise damaging information held over someone as leverage.
Standing posture	What an actor does by default if you don't give them new orders.
Stress event	An event that forces an institution to either function or fail visibly. Resolves "believed vs actual integrity."
Believed vs actual integrity	Institutions can look fine on paper until they're tested. The simulation tracks both.
Attribution inversion	When something is highly likely to happen but very hard to prove who did it. The deniable-escalation zone.
Constraint conflict	When an actor faces competing demands they can't all satisfy. Tracked as a severity score for compromised principals.
Coalition of the compromised	A network of senior officials all exposed to the same underlying disclosure. They cohere as a defensive political force regardless of policy disagreements because defection is too costly.
Federation failure mode	When multiple sub-sims share the same bias direction, the whole system gets biased even though each one looks reasonable on its own. The spec specifically warns about this.
Operating picture	Each side's internal picture of what's happening. Often diverges from ground truth and from the other side's picture.
Ground truth divergence	The gap between operating picture(s) and actual reality. High divergence = people making decisions based on stale or wrong information.

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US political / constitutional terms

Term	Meaning
DHS	Department of Homeland Security. Federal cabinet department covering immigration enforcement, customs, FEMA, Secret Service, TSA.
NCA	National Command Authority. The President's chain of command for using force.
Civil-military relations	The norms governing how the military relates to civilian political authority. Healthy relations mean the military follows lawful orders, refuses illegal ones, and stays out of partisan politics.
Constitutional crisis	A situation where the rules don't tell you which authority is supposed to resolve a dispute, or where multiple authorities claim the same power. Different from a political crisis (which is contested but rule-following).
Authoritarian consolidation	The process by which a regime moves from "elected with authoritarian tendencies" to "able to retain power regardless of elections." Usually involves capturing election administration, courts, security services, and media.
State-level variation	US elections are administered at state level, not federal. Capacity to interfere varies by state.
Dual-claim crisis	A specific kind of election dispute where two candidates / two states / two branches each claim authority. Typically requires either party to back down, or some institution outside the dispute (courts, military, foreign mediators) to arbitrate.
Vice President / Senate counting role	The constitutional procedure for counting electoral votes on January 6. Has become a stress point because the VP's exact role is contested.
State certification	The process by which each state certifies its election results before sending them to Congress. Can be challenged in federal court.

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Strategic concepts (Taiwan / Ukraine / nuclear)

Term	Meaning
PLA	People's Liberation Army. China's armed forces.
Taiwan window	A period during which the strategic conditions favor a PRC attempt on Taiwan. Depends on PLA readiness, US capacity, regional alignment, and Chinese internal politics. Not a fixed date.
Gray zone	Activity below the threshold of war but designed to achieve strategic aims. Sanctions, cyber, info ops, military exercises, diplomatic pressure, all count.
Article 5	NATO's mutual defense clause. Attacks on one are treated as attacks on all. Doesn't apply outside the North Atlantic area — so Taiwan isn't covered, and Ukraine isn't either.
Tactical nuclear weapon (TNW)	A nuclear weapon designed for battlefield use rather than strategic exchange. Typically lower yield. Russia has thousands.
Demonstrative test	Detonating a nuclear weapon over an empty area as a signal, without striking a target. "Look what we can do." Used to communicate seriousness without burning a city.
Doctrinal escalation	Officially announcing a change in nuclear doctrine — for example, expanding the situations in which weapons would be used. Different from actual deployment.
Belarusian / Kaliningrad TNW posture	Russia has positioned tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and Kaliningrad. Movements there are watched closely as signals.
Preparatory signatures	Observable activities that precede actual nuclear use — moving warheads from storage, mating to delivery systems, surge readiness. Surveillance catches these.