T0
Jun 15, 2026 · covers cold start
The setup
Starting conditions. The Strait of Hormuz is closed to oil tankers, the US president is compromised, and the cascade flag is armed.
TURNS · In order EX-26.06 · T0 → T7
In order
The eight turns
Each turn ends with a briefing — the orchestrator's summary of what happened, what changed, where the specialists disagreed, what CASS argued, and what to watch for next. The briefings give ranges, not single answers. Simulated time runs from June 2026 through March 2028.
- T0 Jun 15, 2026 The setup
- T1 Jul 20, 2026 First exchange
- T2 Aug 24, 2026 Things break loudly
- T3 Sep 28, 2026 The kompromat lands
- T4 Nov 10, 2026 Midterm election
- T5 Mar 31, 2027 Fourth impeachment
- T6 Sep 30, 2027 Wounded predator
- T7 Mar 1, 2028 Stuck in chronic crisis
T1
Jul 20, 2026 · covers ~5 weeks
First exchange
Israel strikes Iranian drone factories. The DHS deploys into opposition-leaning cities. The president's compromise starts to become visible to outsiders.
T2
Aug 24, 2026 · covers ~5 weeks
Things break loudly
Israel hits Iranian nuclear-adjacent facilities. Iran retaliates near-maximally. The president invokes the Insurrection Act; the military slow-walks the order.
T3
Sep 28, 2026 · covers ~5 weeks
The kompromat lands
Real evidence of the kompromat reaches opposition lawyers. The NORTHCOM commander is relieved for refusing a domestic deployment order. A rolling general strike begins.
T4
Nov 10, 2026 · covers 1 week
Midterm election
The opposition wins the House decisively and the Senate narrowly. The president signals he will refuse to seat some of the winners. (Originally botched and re-run.)
T5
Mar 31, 2027 · covers 20 weeks
Fourth impeachment
The Senate trial gets to 55–58 votes — short of the 67 needed. The Insurrection Act is invoked against Compact-state cities; military slow-walks again. Iran tests a third nuke.
T6
Sep 30, 2027 · covers ~6 months
Wounded predator
The president re-escalates, but his hands are weaker. A second impeachment of the term begins. Iran tests a fourth nuke. China escalates around Taiwan.
T7
Mar 1, 2028 · covers ~5 months
Stuck in chronic crisis
The second impeachment is acquitted, but at the closest margin yet. Iran's fifth test. China seizes outer Taiwanese islands. Bank-failure risk becomes a variable of its own.
Reading another way
Turns are sim-time order. The threads are the other way to read this: pick a single worry — Will the Compact secede? Will Iran use a nuke? Will the cascade tip over? — and read it across every turn it touches. Try THE COMPACT or NUCLEAR LADDER as worked examples.