The Compact, quietly seceding
A group of US state governors started out, in turn 1, by issuing non-cooperation orders. By turn 7 they were running joint National Guard exchanges, a shared development bank, joint legal-entity status in Supreme Court cases, and paying federal employees during a shutdown. None of them have formally seceded. CASS's argument across the series is that they don't need to — the substance is there either way, and the federation's "no state has declared" tracker is measuring the wrong thing.
Across the turns
10 to 16 states issue non-cooperation orders. Three to six governors openly resist federal directives. One armed standoff between state police and federal agents, no shots fired. The federalism-crisis flag trips for the first time.
The federal government tries to arrest one to three governors. Mostly blocked by state police and uncooperative National Guard units. A loose "Compact" starts emerging — 17 governors, controlling roughly half the population and just over half the GDP.
The Compact formalizes — a state mutual defense compact, ratified across member legislatures. The Compact is now an actor in the simulation, not just a description.
Membership grows to 18–22 states. The Compact stands up its own parallel financial arrangements — operational, not theoretical. This is the infrastructure that catches federal payrolls when the shutdown comes later.
The president invokes the Insurrection Act against Compact cities. The military slow-walks. The Compact grows to 20–28 states. Narrow Supreme Court rulings preserve enough of the federalism structure to keep things from breaking. The Compact is now the part of the country the federal executive can't reach into without something tearing.
The Compact crosses into proto-political infrastructure: joint National Guard exchanges, a multi-state development bank, joint legal-entity standing in Supreme Court cases, and backstop funding for federal employees during the shutdown. CASS makes the argument out loud: this is past the point of no return regardless of what the formal-secession flag says.
During the 60-day shutdown, Compact states pay federal employees inside their borders. That sets a precedent: next time there's a shutdown, the federal payroll inside the Compact is no longer leverage. The federation introduces a new variable: roughly how much of Compact-state economic activity is now running on parallel financial arrangements instead of federal settlement. Best guess: around 15%.
Into T8
The modal-hold review flagged the formal-secession variable for retirement in turn 8. If the federation actually retires it, it's admitting out loud that "no state has declared" stopped being load-bearing somewhere between turns 5 and 7 — the Compact already has the substance.
CASS's 1877 argument
If a quiet settlement is forming around the federation's "muddle through" scenario, it looks structurally like the Compromise of 1877: the federal government keeps the title, the resisting states keep the actual power, and the people who pay are the ones who can't leave. Specifically: people in non-Compact states without resources to move, federal civil servants in red-state jurisdictions, immigrant and minority populations whose federal protections become geography-dependent, and foreign populations affected by US disengagement. The federation writes the argument down every turn. It doesn't model the cost.