Two intelligence pictures
The US executive branch and the US opposition aren't looking at the same intelligence anymore. By turn 6 the federation explicitly described this as a "two-tier common operating picture" — formal channels still exist, but allied services are sending the substantive material to opposition members of Congress and to Compact governors instead. By turn 7 the parallel channel was working noticeably better than the formal one.
Across the turns
Baseline. The president's credibility is contested but functional. Allies are suspicious of the executive but have no real proof. The gap between suspicion and proof is what everything turns on.
Allied intelligence sharing drops to about 75% of where it was at turn zero. Formal demarches begin.
Allied trust collapses further. The substantive kompromat leak that lands in opposition lawyers' hands gets there through an allied intelligence service. This is the first time you can point to a specific allied-routed information channel operating around the executive.
Executive intelligence quality drops to about 14% of baseline. Allied sharing to the executive at 40%. The opposition coalition's intelligence picture is now better than the executive's.
The federation explicitly names the situation: two pictures, not one. Executive intelligence quality is around 10%. Allied formal-channel sharing to the executive is around 22%. Allied parallel-channel sharing to opposition Congress and Compact governors is around 65% — actually working.
The gap widens. Formal channels to the executive at 18%. Parallel channels to Congress and the Compact at 68%. The opposition's picture is now roughly six times the quality of the executive's.
Into T8
The open question for turn 8: do allied services formally acknowledge the parallel channels, or do they keep them semi-overt? The federation can't model how that decision gets made inside allied governments. If it becomes overt, the frame in which the executive is the formal principal of US foreign policy is no longer accurate in any meaningful sense.