Two intelligence pictures
The US executive branch and the US opposition stopped looking at the same intelligence somewhere around turn 2. By turn 6 the federation had a name for it: "two-tier common operating picture." By turn 8 it was reclassified from "emerging" to "permanent operational reality." By turn 10 the parallel channel to the opposition and Compact was running at six times the quality of the formal channel to the executive. Allied intelligence services had built the workaround. They were not going to dismantle it.
Across the turns
Baseline. The president's credibility is contested but functional. Allies are suspicious but have no proof. The gap between suspicion and actionable proof is what everything turns on.
Allied intelligence sharing drops to about 75% of where it was at turn zero. Formal diplomatic protests begin.
Allied trust collapses further. The substantive kompromat leak that lands in opposition lawyers' hands gets there through an allied service. First documented case of allied-routed information flow around the executive.
Executive intelligence quality drops to about 14% of baseline. Allied sharing to the executive at 40%. The opposition coalition's intelligence picture is now better than the executive's.
The federation explicitly names it: two pictures, not one. Executive intelligence quality around 10%. Allied formal-channel sharing to the executive around 22%. Allied parallel-channel sharing to opposition Congress and Compact governors around 65% — substantively functional.
The gap widens. Formal channels to the executive at 18%. Parallel channels to Congress and the Compact at 68%. The opposition's picture is now roughly six times the quality of the executive's.
The federation reclassifies the two-tier picture from "emerging" to PERMANENT_OPERATIONAL_REALITY. Allied parallel-channel sharing to 78%. Executive picture quality to 5%.
No movement on this. Both numbers stay where they were. The bifurcation is institutionalized.
Executive picture quality collapsed to ~2%. Allied parallel-channel sharing approached ceiling at 90%. At the cliff turn, the federal executive was operating effectively blind while the Compact-recognized opposition government was reading allied intelligence in something close to real time.
Into T8
The two-tier picture wasn't something allies could undo even if they wanted to. The institutional infrastructure (the workarounds, the back channels, the personal relationships between allied services and opposition Congress members) had been built deliberately over multiple turns. The question the federation explicitly couldn't answer at the close: whether allied services will formally acknowledge the parallel channels post-transition, or whether they'll keep them semi-overt and ambiguous.