Restraint, or just patience?
China hasn't invaded Taiwan. Russia hasn't dumped its full kompromat. Iran hasn't used the weapon. The federation models all three as restraint. CASS has been arguing across the series that none of it is restraint — it's patient preparation that resolves outside the window we're looking through. By turn 7 the China line had moved cleanly from exercises through outer-island kinetic actions, just below the amphibious-invasion line. Russia and Iran are still "holding" — which is exactly what CASS is worried about.
Across the turns
Chinese PLA exercise patterns shift toward Taiwan. Russia signals it could release more partial kompromat. First flag from CASS: the federation may be reading absence-of-action as restraint when it's really calibration.
China runs its largest-ever Taiwan exercises during US midterm week. ADIZ saturation. A partial rehearsal of a quarantine. No actual kinetic action.
China escalates to a graduated quarantine of Taiwan — restricting traffic, inspecting ships — during the month of the fourth impeachment trial. No amphibious. Russia escalates to partial kompromat releases naming 3–6 figures.
China moves to "active enforcement": boarding actions, selective seizures, three shootdowns of Taiwanese reconnaissance aircraft. Still no amphibious. Russia keeps doing partial releases, holds the full dump. Iran demonstrates the working warhead with its fourth test. CASS formally names the pattern: this is adversary leverage maximization, not restraint.
China escalates to outer-island kinetic — actually damaging or seizing Taiwanese-administered features. Still below amphibious invasion. This is the first turn-to-turn step up the Taiwan ladder beyond what active enforcement already established. The federation finally tracks "outer-island kinetic" as its own variable.
Into T8
For turn 8: sustained outer-island kinetic activity around 50%. Amphibious invasion around 12%. Russian full kompromat dump around 18% — with the open question of whether Russia is holding specific tranches in reserve for specific triggers. CASS's critique has been absorbed into the variable structure but not into the central estimates.